Thursday, December 17, 2015

Likely effects of Delhi's odd-even policy on related products, services and stakeholders

  1. Second-hand car market will become more active, with some folks who have only one car wanting to keep another car [with the other type of registration number, to be used on alternate days].
  2. Rise of car-pooling, resulting [incidentally] in increased real-life social interaction with colleagues, neighbors, etc.
  3. Rise in use of public transport like buses, Delhi Metro, etc.
  4. Newfound consideration about the registration number for the second car/vehicle people purchase, with people wanting to have both even- and odd-numbered cars in their homes.
  5. Fall in sales at Delhi car dealerships, as Delhites prefer buying from outside Delhi/NCR for use inside Delhi [in case the odd-even rule doesn't apply to non-Delhi/non-NCR vehicles].
  6. An opposite market force that will try to increase new vehicle is the desire/need of Delhites to own a second car to circumvent the odd-even rule. However, folks are likely to choose a small car as the second car. People likely won't want to spend on a big/expensive car just to circumvent the rule.
  7. Increase in use of cab/taxi services such as Ola, Meru, Uber, etc.
  8. Increase in the proportion of women drivers - in case Delhi creates an exemption for female drivers - as many men will prefer making their women do the driving on alternate days rather than buying a second car or using public transport or a two-wheeler.
  9. Similarly, both sales and usage of two-wheelers are likely to rise, in case these are also exempt from the rule.
These points can be groups under different heads - what things will rise, what things will fall, etc.

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